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Productivity-paradox

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Apollo Global Management — The Daily Spark 2026-10-25-1

No Signs of AI Payoff Outside the Tech Sector

Real revenue per worker and profit margins are rising for the Mag 7 and flat for the S&P 493, and the San Francisco Fed's utilization-adjusted TFP shows no AI lift. Because the Mag 7 build and sell the technology, their results can't test whether buyers gain; the 493 can, and Slok's 'great calculator' framing explains why judgment doesn't get cheaper with tokens. The only series still climbing is token spend at VC-backed companies.

Freddie deBoer (Substack) 2026-10-21-1

Four Direct, Reasonable, and Important AI Questions (Which the AI People Will Ignore)

deBoer holds AI maximalists to their own yardstick and finds daily life in 2026 barely distinguishable from 2021. His best argument is that cancer is limited by tumor recurrence, toxicity and patient dropout, and curing every cancer would add only about three years of life expectancy. That sets the ceiling for Schmidt's claim that disease could be cured in 15-20 years: where the constraint is physical, faster thinking buys little.