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AI infrastructure capex

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Investor's Business Daily (YouTube) 2026-10-25-2

Meta's $1,000 Bull Case: How Muse AI Changes The Valuation Game | IBD

Walmsley calls Muse an offensive bet and orders the money: subscriptions, then business agents in WhatsApp and Messenger ads, then an enterprise API, with consumer agent revenue in 2028 or 2029. Amazon has already blocked Muse on its storefront, so the near-term revenue that doesn't depend on the consumer agent comes through advertisers, where Meta already owns the relationship. Against Apollo's flat 493, this is intelligence paired with an owned counterparty and glasses context.

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metaai-capital-cycleai-capexconsumer-aiagentic-commercemonetization-gapagent-gatingadvertisingequity-researchvaluationsmbvideoyoutube
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AI infrastructure capexMonetization Gapagentic commerceAgent GatingDistribution moat
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ai-capital-cycleconsumer-aiagentic-commerceagent-gating
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2026-05-26-22026-05-01-w22026-03-16-22026-03-31-m22026-10-16-w22026-03-20-w32026-05-04-22026-03-20-w12026-04-30-12026-05-01-32026-05-27-2
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Dwarkesh Podcast 2026-10-22-1

What will computer chips look like in 2045?

Intel's Ranade says process technology is within a few percent of TSMC, and the gap that matters is scale and on-time ramps. ASML builds fewer than 100 EUV machines a year, leading-edge output could reach about 2x with existing tool supply rather than 10x, and a tool ordered today lands in 2028. That timeline means 2030 supply is largely being decided by orders placed now, which is the constraint the Empires of AI piece and the CME contracts both sit on top of.

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dwarkeshintelsemiconductorstsmcasmlcompute-supply-chaininfrastructure-bottleneckai-capex-cyclememory-marketpodcastai-capital-cycle
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AI infrastructure capexMarket concentrationHardware fragmentationVertical IntegrationSupply Constraint Economics
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infrastructure-bottleneckai-capex-cycleai-capital-cycle
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2026-03-18-12026-04-21-22026-03-28-32026-03-17-32026-10-16-32026-04-14-12026-03-31-m22026-10-16-12026-10-16-w2
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The Wall Street Journal 2026-10-22-3

Want to Short the AI Boom? She Wants to Give You a Way to Bet on 'Compute' Prices

CME plans cash-settled monthly contracts on H100 and B200 rental, out to three years, based on Silicon Data indexes built from 40+ sources. The CFTC has already flagged manipulation by dominant players, price variance across providers and regions, and missing fungibility, and its review pushed the October 5 launch back by 45 days. A traded forward curve would let lenders and shorts price the scarcity the chips and Empires of AI reads describe, but the settlement number belongs to whoever owns the index.

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ai-capital-cyclecompute-scarcityderivativescftccmegpu-infrastructuremarket-structurewsjai-infrastructure-financecommodity-markets
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Regulatory StrategyMarket StructureAI infrastructure capexCounterparty Riskcommoditization
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ai-capital-cyclecompute-scarcityai-infrastructure-finance
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2026-03-10-32026-04-12-12026-04-21-22026-10-16-w22026-05-09-w12026-03-10-22026-05-06-22026-05-01-w22026-10-16-1
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