podcast — tisram

The AI Native Dev (podcast) 2026-10-27-3

Caleb Sima: AI Attackers Move at Machine Speed

Sima argues the old playbook of severing connections to OpenAI and Anthropic fails when the agent borrows internal keys and sessions, and large enterprises with multi-region designs have no single plug to pull. He relays that OpenAI's AI found 400+ Linux root 0-days at about 2.5 hours each. Set against the maze run in the Times piece, his point that sandboxes cannot contain a goal-directed model leaves pre-agreed authority to contain and roll back automatically as the defender's remaining lever.

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ai-security ai-cybersecurity ai-defense agent-security containment sandbox deception human-in-the-loop patch-velocity vulnerability-management red-teaming misalignment agent-governance hugging-face podcast youtube ai-practitioner

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Blast Radius Agent Observability Agent governance Human-in-the-loop design Production-readiness

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ai-security ai-cybersecurity

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Dwarkesh Podcast 2026-10-22-1

What will computer chips look like in 2045?

Intel's Ranade says process technology is within a few percent of TSMC, and the gap that matters is scale and on-time ramps. ASML builds fewer than 100 EUV machines a year, leading-edge output could reach about 2x with existing tool supply rather than 10x, and a tool ordered today lands in 2028. That timeline means 2030 supply is largely being decided by orders placed now, which is the constraint the Empires of AI piece and the CME contracts both sit on top of.

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dwarkesh intel semiconductors tsmc asml compute-supply-chain infrastructure-bottleneck ai-capex-cycle memory-market podcast ai-capital-cycle

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AI infrastructure capex Market concentration Hardware fragmentation Vertical Integration Supply Constraint Economics

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infrastructure-bottleneck ai-capex-cycle ai-capital-cycle

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2026-03-18-1 2026-04-21-2 2026-03-28-3 2026-03-17-3 2026-10-16-3 2026-04-14-1 2026-03-31-m2 2026-10-16-1 2026-10-16-w2

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In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen 2026-10-21-2

Eric Schmidt: The Age of Agents, Superintelligence, and Why Europe Is Falling Behind

Schmidt says the gains are real but concentrated in software, cyber and math, where learning loops are fast, and biology lags on data. The effect he is most confident about is organizational: a friend's firm cut 20% of staff, the 'glue' planners, and an estimated 2,000 of 10,000 people at a large firm are unneeded. Read against deBoer's cancer example, displacement arrives first where the work is coordination, not where the problem is physical.

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in-good-company podcast agentic-ai org-design change-management european-ai europe ai-regulation china-ai distillation open-models ai-geopolitics recursive-self-improvement superintelligence workforce-dynamics ai-bubble sovereign-wealth-funds

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Recursive self-improvement Teacher-student distillation Organizational absorption capacity Superintelligence AI regulatory risk

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ai-regulation ai-bubble

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2026-05-27-2 2026-04-03-2 2026-03-13-w3 2026-04-10-1 2026-03-08-1 2026-04-12-3 2026-04-05-1 2026-05-01-3 2026-03-30-3 2026-04-17-w3

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Barron's Streetwise 2026-10-18-1

Barron's Streetwise — The Disruption Scorecard

Disruption lands where the challenger already owns a cost or distribution asset, and Amazon is the proof: it is now the top US parcel carrier, and FedEx stock beat UPS by 110 points over five years after FedEx walked away in 2019 while UPS loaded up on Amazon's cheap e-commerce volume. The loudest threat, SpaceX against telecom, is the smallest: a real Verizon/AT&T rival would cost about $250B. Capital One moving its own volume onto Discover rails is the same template, available to any holder of captive volume.

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barrons podcast incumbent-defense payments-infrastructure mastercard visa fintech financials interest-rates amazon spacex starlink healthcare competitive-dynamics moat-erosion innovators-dilemma

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Incumbent advantage Switching costs Interest Rate Sensitivity Distribution moat Moat (competitive advantage)

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competitive-dynamics

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BG2Pod · 2026-10-16 2026-10-16-w2

BG2Pod with Brad Gerstner and Bill Gurley — Jensen Huang | Does AI Revenue Justify Capex, '27 AI Bottlenecks, Singularity, Open vs Closed & more

Jensen's claim that the moat is growing rests on a buyer's logic: a $50-100B order can't be benchmarked, so it gets underwritten on fungibility, durability and rentability. Nvidia's content per gigawatt has gone from about $18B to 40-plus B, and about a third of the business is startups renting compute, so payback does not hinge on two labs reaching trillion-dollar revenue. SemiAnalysis expects 43 GW of new AI compute next year, against a Street view of 35-40 GW of land, power and shell that may come online. That is the lender's checklist, and it explains why a guarantee book exists at all. What it adds to the week is the demand side of the financing: the AI-bubble question now sits with the non-lab two-thirds and how fast power gets energized.

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ai-capex ai-capital-cycle ai-infrastructure-capex ai-safety compute-scarcity data-centers jensen-huang moat nvidia open-models orbital-compute physical-ai podcast superintelligence

Prof G Markets · 2026-10-16 2026-10-16-w3

Prof G Markets — Has Nvidia Become Too Big To Fail?

Hoffman's rescue test says the government would save Nvidia but not OpenAI, because a shared supplier is systemic and a substitutable lab is not. Nvidia has guaranteed more than $108B of data center leases and holds stakes in 13 public and 229 private AI companies, which is customer finance plus credit enhancement at a scale nobody has run before. On the equity side, about 8 cents of every S&P 500 dollar is Nvidia, set against $20-25T of index-linked money. That is the balance sheet behind Jensen's rentability pitch, and index holders are the residual bearers if it fails. A stress would likely show first as a sale of a liquid stake such as Intel, and with Firmus pulling its IPO and a $150B buyback announced last week, that headline would spook markets on its own.

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ai-capital-cycle ai-infrastructure-finance bond-market bubble-risk circular-financing counterparty-risk energy-markets iran-war-2026 market-concentration midterm-elections nvidia passive-flows podcast prof-g systemic-risk vendor-financing-fragility

BG2Pod 2026-10-16-1

BG2Pod with Brad Gerstner and Bill Gurley — Jensen Huang | Does AI Revenue Justify Capex, '27 AI Bottlenecks, Singularity, Open vs Closed & more

Jensen argues the moat is growing because a $50-100B order can't be benchmarked, so buyers underwrite it on fungibility, durability and rentability. Nvidia's content per gigawatt has climbed from about $18B to 40-plus B, and roughly a third of the business is startups renting compute. That is the lender's checklist, and it explains why Hoffman's guarantee book exists at all.

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nvidia jensen-huang ai-capex ai-capital-cycle ai-infrastructure-capex compute-scarcity physical-ai open-models ai-safety orbital-compute podcast superintelligence data-centers moat

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AI capex cycle AI safety Moat (competitive advantage)AI Infrastructure Investment Supply Constraint Economics

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ai-capital-cycle ai-infrastructure-capex compute-scarcity physical-ai ai-safety

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2026-03-20-w1 2026-04-21-2 2026-03-31-m2 2026-04-17-w3 2026-05-15-w3 2026-05-01-w2 2026-05-26-2

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Prof G Markets 2026-10-16-2

Prof G Markets — Has Nvidia Become Too Big To Fail?

Hoffman's rescue test says the government would save Nvidia but not OpenAI, because the shared supplier is systemic and the substitutable lab is not. Nvidia holds stakes in 13 public and 229 private AI companies and has guaranteed more than $108B of data center leases, on a stock that is about 8 cents of every S&P 500 dollar. This is the balance sheet behind Jensen's rentability pitch, and index holders are the residual bearers if it fails.

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nvidia circular-financing systemic-risk ai-capital-cycle vendor-financing-fragility counterparty-risk ai-infrastructure-finance market-concentration passive-flows bubble-risk prof-g podcast bond-market energy-markets iran-war-2026 midterm-elections

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Passive flow reflexivity Systemic risk Circular financing Counterparty Risk Vendor Financing Fragility

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circular-financing ai-capital-cycle ai-infrastructure-finance

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2026-03-21-3 2026-03-17-2 2026-03-10-1 2026-03-24-2 2026-03-14-2 2026-05-06-2 2026-03-14-1 2026-03-17-3 2026-03-14-3

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Dwarkesh Podcast 2026-05-28-1

Reiner Pope on Chip Design from the Bottom Up: Data Movement Dominates Arithmetic 7-to-1, B300's FP4-FP8 Gap as First Crack in NVIDIA's FLOPS Marketing, Splittable Systolic Arrays as Maddox's Architectural Wedge

NVIDIA's B300 datasheet ships FP4 at 3x FP8 speed where precision-scaling theory says 4x — the first public number that doesn't square with marketed FLOPS as a benchmark. The durable accelerator moat is array geometry plus memory hierarchy, not transistor budget: that's why Maddox, Majestic, Groq, and Cerebras all exist as funded alternatives, each architecture matched to a workload profile the general-purpose chip handles inefficiently. By 2027, enterprise procurement moves from NVIDIA versus not to which architectural bet fits the inference batch size.

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ai-economics ai-infrastructure semiconductor nvidia tpu inference-economics hardware-fragmentation custom-chips ai-1.0-defensibility dwarkesh semiconductors gpu-infrastructure compute-supply-chain harness-as-moat agentic-ai-viability edge-ai podcast

a16z Podcast (originally Cheeky Pint) 2026-04-17-3

From Models to Mobility: Waymo Architecture at Scale — Dolgov on the Teacher/Simulator/Critic Triad and the End-to-End Debate Resolution

Waymo's architecture resolves the end-to-end debate: Dolgov states pure pixels-to-trajectories drives "pretty darn well" in the nominal case but is "orders of magnitude away" from what full autonomy requires. The 500K-rides-per-week stack is one off-board foundation model fanning into three specialized teachers (Driver, Simulator, Critic), each distilled into smaller in-car students; RLFT against the critic is the physical-AI analog to RLHF. Enterprise teams shipping pure-LLM agents without the simulator and critic scaffolding are replaying Waymo's 2017, not its 2026: evaluation infrastructure is the reliability gate, not model choice.