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Foreign Affairs 2026-10-22-2

Empires of AI: The Rise and Fall of a New Global Order

The Empires of AI piece argues that scaling laws tie the frontier to energy, chips and capital, so capital decides who can keep racing. The US paid about $881B in interest against $874B on defense in 2024, while the biggest tech firms committed more than $600B of 2026 capex. Add the June Commerce order that took Anthropic's top two models dark worldwide, and access to the output of those scarce tools looks like a revocable state concession.

# tags
ai-geopoliticsai-capital-cycleexport-controlschina-aisovereign-aitaiwan-riskguns-and-butterhistorical-analogyworld-orderopen-modelsscaling-lawsnational-securitycompute-scarcitytsmcforeign-affairs
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National securityFiscal dominanceAI capex cycleGeopolitical RiskSupply Constraint Economics
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ai-capital-cyclecompute-scarcity
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2026-03-13-w32026-04-12-12026-04-03-22026-05-18-12026-03-18-12026-05-09-w12026-10-21-32026-03-11-22026-03-18-32026-10-16-12026-10-16-w2
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In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen 2026-10-21-2

Eric Schmidt: The Age of Agents, Superintelligence, and Why Europe Is Falling Behind

Schmidt says the gains are real but concentrated in software, cyber and math, where learning loops are fast, and biology lags on data. The effect he is most confident about is organizational: a friend's firm cut 20% of staff, the 'glue' planners, and an estimated 2,000 of 10,000 people at a large firm are unneeded. Read against deBoer's cancer example, displacement arrives first where the work is coordination, not where the problem is physical.

# tags
in-good-companypodcastagentic-aiorg-designchange-managementeuropean-aieuropeai-regulationchina-aidistillationopen-modelsai-geopoliticsrecursive-self-improvementsuperintelligenceworkforce-dynamicsai-bubblesovereign-wealth-funds
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Recursive self-improvementTeacher-student distillationOrganizational absorption capacitySuperintelligenceAI regulatory risk
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ai-regulationai-bubble
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2026-05-27-22026-04-03-22026-03-13-w32026-04-10-12026-03-08-12026-04-12-32026-04-05-12026-05-01-32026-03-30-32026-04-17-w3
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Arnaud Bertrand (Substack) 2026-10-21-3

What's left for us after AI? China's thinkers have very different answers

Bertrand argues the Western fear of AI rests on a culturally specific premise that intelligence is what makes us human, as in Homo sapiens. Liu Yongmou inverts it: humanity's biggest problem is the machinization of humans, not the humanization of machines. If coordination work is the first to go, as in Schmidt's flattened firms, the open question is what remains of a person's worth once usefulness is no longer the measure.

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chinachina-aiai-philosophyalignmentai-cognitive-impactcognitive-offloadingsubstackconsensus-positioning
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AI governanceSuperintelligenceCognitive offloading
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ai-philosophyalignment
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2026-04-03-22026-03-13-w32026-03-18-12026-04-12-32026-05-18-12026-03-27-32026-04-06-12026-04-17-w32026-04-14-1
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P3 Institute · 2026-05-15 2026-05-15-w3

From Open Source Software to Open Source Strategy

Gurley's LF Networking data makes a point the piece doesn't foreground: Cisco held gross margins at 65-68% across eight years of open-coalition pressure while Juniper sold to HPE for $14B, Nokia mobile revenue fell 21%, and Ericsson cut 25,000 jobs. Open-source strategy doesn't kill the leader; it eliminates everyone ranked two through five. Applied to frontier AI, the open-versus-closed framing is a distraction from the real question, which is rank within the closed cohort: OpenAI plausibly holds the Cisco premium while the labs below it face Nokia-scale compression once a credible Western open-weight frontier lands. Anysphere on Kimi, Airbnb on Qwen, and the April House-committee letters suggest 2026 is when that fight became operational. The Deployment Company and OpenEvidence repricing both land on the same side of that bet: distribution moat and credentialed corpus hold; undifferentiated capability compresses.

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agent-supply-chainai-1.0-defensibilityai-economicsai-geopoliticsai-policyai-regulationai-strategyamazonanthropicarmautonomous-vehicleschina-aicommoditizationcompetitive-dynamicscompetitive-strategydeepseekevalriggeopolitical-riskgoogleharness-as-moatinvestmentkuberneteslinux-foundationmetamistralmoat-erosionnvdaopen-sourceopenaipickrigplatformizationprotocol-standardizationqwenregulatory-strategyrisc-vteslaturanuvendor-consolidationwaymo
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ARMAWSAirbnbAlibaba QwenAmazonAndroidAnthropicAnysphereBYDBaidu ApolloBenchmarkBill GurleyBrian CheskyCNCFCiscoConfluentCruiseCursorDeepMindDeepSeekDemis HassabisEricssonFordGLMGoogleHashiCorpIBMJuniperKubernetesLF NetworkingLinux FoundationLlama 4Mark ZuckerbergMetaMicrosoftMiniMaxMistralMoonshot KimiMuse SparkNokiaOpen Compute ProjectOpenAIOverture MapsP3 InstitutePony.aiQualcommRISC-V InternationalRed HatRivosSemaforTeslaTomTomToyotaUberVentanaVolkswagenWaymoWeRide
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ai-1.0-defensibilityai-regulatory-riskchina-ai-riseharness-as-moatsaas-bifurcation
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2026-05-15-22026-05-12-12026-05-14-2
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P3 Institute 2026-05-15-2

From Open Source Software to Open Source Strategy

Gurley's LF Networking data makes the point he doesn't lead with: eight years of open-coalition pressure held Cisco's gross margins at 65-68% while Juniper sold to HPE for $14B, Nokia mobile revenue fell 21%, Ericsson cut 25,000 jobs, and global telecom equipment shrank 11%. Open Source Strategy doesn't kill the leader; it kills everyone ranked two through five. Apply that to frontier AI and the open-versus-closed binary becomes a ranking-within-the-closed-cohort signal: OpenAI plausibly keeps the Cisco premium while the labs below face Nokia-scale compression once a credible Western open-weight frontier lands, and Anysphere on Kimi plus Airbnb on Qwen plus the April 29 House-committee letters suggest 2026 is when that fight became operational.

# tags
open-sourceai-economicsai-1.0-defensibilitychina-aicommoditizationautonomous-vehiclesharness-as-moatregulatory-strategyprotocol-standardizationcompetitive-dynamicsai-geopoliticsmoat-erosionvendor-consolidationrisc-varmkubernetescompetitive-strategydeepseekqwenmistralanthropicopenaigooglemetaamazonnvdaagent-supply-chainplatformizationai-regulationwaymoteslaai-strategyturanuevalrigpickrigai-policygeopolitical-risklinux-foundationinvestment
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Bill GurleyP3 InstituteBenchmarkLinux FoundationCNCFRISC-V InternationalARMCiscoJuniperNokiaEricssonQualcommVentanaRivosMetaGoogleAmazonAWSMicrosoftIBMRed HatHashiCorpConfluentOpenAIAnthropicDeepMindDemis HassabisMistralDeepSeekAlibaba QwenMoonshot KimiGLMMiniMaxAnysphereCursorAirbnbBrian CheskyWaymoTeslaCruiseBaidu ApolloPony.aiWeRideBYDFordToyotaVolkswagenOverture MapsTomTomUberMark ZuckerbergLlama 4Muse SparkKubernetesAndroidOpen Compute ProjectLF NetworkingSemafor
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harness-as-moatai-regulatory-riskchina-ai-risesaas-bifurcationai-1.0-defensibility
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art_20260515_gurley-from-open-source-software-to-openart_20260403_alibaba-s-open-to-closed-pivot-qwen3-6-part_20260420_batch-324-meta-muse-spark-lilly-insilico-state-ai-regs-persona-generatorsart_20260405_anthropic-launches-anthropac-ai-safety-aart_20260510_demsas-ai-as-centralizing-technology-priart_20260506_openai-mrc-protocol-stretch-compute-via-art_20260514_jensen-huang-cs153-compute-behind-intel2026-04-17-w12026-04-24-w22026-04-01-12026-04-22-22026-03-13-w12026-04-07-22026-05-07-12026-05-12-12026-03-31-m22026-04-15-32026-04-25-12026-05-06-32026-05-07-22026-05-09-32026-05-11-22026-05-10-22026-05-14-3
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